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In the aim of creating an economic vision to all sectors in the community as : education ,industry, agriculture etc…
‘’100% Liban ’’ created a weekly economical debate to communicate with experts to facilitate social interaction and to update working processes in every field .
Those meetings will discuss different topics and will prepare seminars, workshops, round tables and bigger events to support and grow our economy and to provide opportunities for development.
100% Liban – Executive Magazine Lebanon’s fiscal, monetary, and banking restructure situation
100% Liban, the civil society organization committed to Lebanon’s economic recovery, and Executive Magazine, the premiere Lebanese business magazine, has conducted a focus group discussion bringing together leading economic experts to discuss Lebanon’s fiscal, monetary, and banking restructure situation.
Conducted according to Chatham House rules which guarantee confidentiality about their statements to discussants, the high-powered round of experienced economists in their first round of deliberations agreed that a fiscal restructuring of Lebanon’s state finances will have to be anchored in better collection and improved tax justice but should not resort to higher taxes. They also noted that solutions commonly recommended by the International Monetary Fund will not be applicable as generic solution but have to be contextualized to Lebanon and qualitatively upgraded.
Proceeding seamlessly to discussions of the currency crisis, the participants in their majority favored a free-float shock and market alignment of the Lebanese pound while the majority rejected the solution of a currency board as not currently feasible. The topic of a dollarization solution was mentioned as hard peg alternative to the free float but not examined in further detail.
A good bank – bad bank segregation of banking risks and isolation of toxic assets was elaborated on in the third part of the deliberations, with participants emphasizing that the restructuring of the banking sector requires a fair attribution of responsibilities to the main actors in the banking fiasco, namely the Lebanese government, the central bank, and the commercial banks, but also must not absolve the citizens of their role in the build-up of the banking crisis.
The half-day event, which was held at 100% Liban’s headquarters in Sin el Fil, delved into policy priorities from Executive’s Economic Roadmap, the magazine’s collaborative and consultative iteration of until today five annual editions of possible constructive solutions that would help the country boost its economic activity as well as improve its capacity to create short and long-term growth.
Participants highlighted the importance of reclaiming Lebanon’s position within the regional and global economic landscape, emphasizing a necessity to foster a healthy and stable environment attracting local and foreign investments into various industries of the country.
The focus group reiterated the vital role the private sector must play in rebuilding Lebanon’s economy, done through a commitment to transparency and integrity while placing the interests of the country at the forefront of the plan.
100% Liban organized a roundtable defining the problems and possible solutions concerning Lebanon’s total debt .The session was moderated by the general coordinator of 100%Liban Mrs. Pamela Ibrahim El Kosseifi with the participation of : MP Ragi El Saad , Dr.Bassem Bawab , Dr.Nassib Ghobril , Mr. Yasser Akkaoui, Mr.Gerard Charvet , Dr.Elias Kassab , Mr. Abdellatif Sidani , Dr.WissamFahed and Mrs.Carole Karam .
This meeting focused on 4 topics:
- The consequences of writing off $60 billion by the government:
*A complete disaster
*Destroying again the “Trust”
*People’s fund will vanish
*Chaos in the future
- General Fiscality Document :
*To take the decision of reviewing smart ways to collect tax
revenues
- Economic document presented by Irada association :
*We are against the plan that will deduct the $60 billion from
Depositors :
a-We have no guarantees
b-It would destroy lebanese economy
c-It would destroy one more time the purchase power
d-This is a bad economic vision for the future
e-It may cause a new currency
f-It may kill the opportunities of the country
g- This is definitly not about confidence
h-This plan will destroy the banking sector
Our next session will discuss the agenda of of Parliamentary Finance and budget committee.Will be following the steps of the Parlement on the aim of saving Lebanon.
Since "100% Liban" and "Irada"share a common vision regarding the financial plan accredited by the Lebanese government to save Lebanon. The two parties join their efforts and present a statement about their mutual remarks concerning this plan.
An E-conference was presented on Sunday 28th of August, organized by the Lebanese diaspora, moderated by our new Lebanon member Mr. Ferris Wehbi and the special guest speaker Mr. Nicolas Chikhani, discussing the economic situation in Lebanon and the roadmap to save Lebanon.
Only together we make it happen!
It was pointed out by Mr. Nicolas Chikhani that several mistakes were done, he started by giving a brief explanation on the history that led to this crisis:
- Ever since 2001 the problems started accumulating when the balance of payment became negative for the first time, and no measures were taken to sustain the economy since.
- 2011 was a disaster, the war on Syria severely affected the Lebanese economy. For the first time the balance of payment lost overnight $3 billion. In this year we had around 1.5 million Syrian working in Lebanon and sending almost ¾ of their salaries to their families in Syria, which caused a huge impact on the economy.
- The balance of payment kept on decreasing year after year.
- In 2016, the central bank reserve was bleeding to cover the shortage of the balance of payment and of the deposit of the state.
- The state was spending more than the revenue that it was generating.
- The country could no longer sustain the bleeding of its currency to cover all the losses between the balance of payment and printing money, they did the first financial engineering (that lasted from 2016 to early 2019)
- The central bank could correct liquidity but the country generated losses in the system.
- When the revolution took place in October 2019, the bank sector closed for more than 15 days, which created a bank-run, the people lost the trust in the system.
- February 2020, a historical mistake was made: the state of Lebanon defaulted on the Eurobond, with no backup plan!
- By defaulting the Eurobonds, they did a huge haircut on the depositors because banks used to hold $15 billion of Eurobonds using the money of the depositors.
- We reached a deterioration now of more than 100%, a catastrophic hyperinflation and the destruction of the purchase power of the Lebanese citizens
For the upcoming 6 to 10 months if nothing is done, the remaining reserves at the central bank will disappear and the country will be bankrupt.
We cannot destroy the banking sector! We can merge it, it can be structured, we have 55 banks that can go down to 10 banks. Because we need banks to recreate the economy, we need to create a GDP growth so that the banking system will finance the growth.
The Roadmap to save Lebanon presented by Mr. Nicolas Chikhani
1- He emphasized that the lack of electricity is even worse than war. It’s an energetic war. Today almost every family spends around 500$ to 600$ on electricity that could’ve been used as a purchase power and help recover the economy.
2- The Central Bank must act immediately, and present a transparent monetary policy that standardizes the exchange rate. Discussing and analyzing if it's best to float the exchange rate or block it.
3- The parliament needs to act immediately. The rule of law in acting on the independence of justice to fight corruption and insure that we are killing the informal economy by stopping and controlling the borders (port, airport and land)
4- Strengthen the public audit. Today it’s not working, the reports are not being brought to justice. It will audit the public institution fully and will ensure transparency and control.
5- We need to set a strong fiscal policy and strategy to close the budget deficit and strengthen tax collection and not increase it.
6- Restructuring the public sector and rescheduling the debt.
7- Set a full strategy to squeeze the balance of payment. A negative balance of payment is a net outflow of money outside the country.
8- Enact a law to protect private deposits.
Under the title :"International Monetary Fund: policies and opportunities, how can they benefit Lebanon?",
100% Liban organized a conference given by Dr. Mounir Rached, Economist, President of the Lebanese Economic Association and Dr. Sami Geadah, former senior IMF .
The session was moderated by the General coordinator at
100% Liban ,Mrs. Pamela Ibrahim El Kosseifi.
Dr.Rached explained the most prominent solutions through a recovery proposal to exit the Lebanese crisis while the government is following a destructive path and has not been able to start genuine constructive and sequential reform.
However Lebanon has to achieve and apply the following before any agreement with the Monetary Fund :
*Protect all deposits
*Free and Unify the Exchange rate
*Financial assets and liabilities rescheduling
*Fiscal reform
*Corporatize public enterprise
*Compensation of LBP denominated deposits
According to Dr. Geadah ,the Alternate Director at the IMF Executive Board representing several countries including Lebanon from 2009-2021 ,he formulated and presented positions on IMF policies and procedures, and his work included advice on discussions with the IMF.
If Lebanon successfully secures an IMF program, how likely is it to go off-track? What is the country’s Plan B without an IMF program?
As noted, no corrective action was pursued to the reform plans so far ,and the “wait and see” game is not prudent, will make the crisis worse.
100% Liban aim to unify the various initiatives of the private sector in response to the inadequacy of the authorities to make our ideas and voices heard and influence future reflections and choices for the recovery of our country.
Dr. Mounir Rached organized a meeting with the group of depositors “اموالنا لنا"at 100%Liban.
Dr. Rached clarified to the participants why we should all refuse to write off the deposits and also he explained well the importance of the banking sector.
Dr. Rached proposed a list of recommendations as follow:
-Restoring confidence in the state and in the banks.
-Unifing the exchange rates.
-Achieving a financial balance: the liberalization of the exchange rate must be accompanied by a financial balance.
-Implementing a privatization plan to develop the management of the public sector institutions.
100% Liban aim to increase public awareness and involvement by encouraging the Lebanese citizens to join our community and follow our committees.
100% Liban organized a roundtable discussion entitled: "How to reactivate the real economy, and what are the requirements?
The session was moderated by Dr. Bassem El Bawab, board member at IRADA.
The speakers were:
- Mr. Ramzi El Hafez, general manager at ''InfoPro''.
- Dr. Mounir Rached, president of the Lebanese Economic Association.
Mr. Ramzi El Hafez proposed a plan for the economic recovery with the following key points:
- A new socio-economic plan that adjusts public and private sector salaries.
- Floating the Exchange rate:
When we float the exchange rate, the market will be regulated and this will lead to a stabilization of prices in a short term.
- Restructuring of the public debt:
Restructuring the public debt will give banks the way to review there depositors’ accounts.
- Amending the fiscal policy:
A fiscal policy that writes off all direct taxes expect those related to financial institutions and insurances.
- Working on the Energy sector:
Creating a national plan to explore the oil and gas.
Also, Dr. Mounir Rached proposed a list of recommendations to revive the economy and emphasized on the following points:
- Float the exchange rates.
- Restore confidence between citizens and the state when the state first admits and restructures its debts and works on specific reforms.
- Achieve a financial balance: the liberalization of the exchange rate must be accompanied by a financial balance that leads to a coherence between expenditures and resources and indeed determines the solvability and the liquidity.
100% Liban support a recovery plan in order to restore confidence between the state and the citizens and work against the bankruptcy of the country.
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On Tuesday 31st of January 2023, a group of economists met at 100% Liban for a focus meeting entitled “Rebuilding Trust: Strategy for Establishing a Strong Economic Framework”.
In order to look for effective methods of purposeful economic work that must be adopted in light of the current crisis, which has lasted longer than expected and has not seen constructive and radical solutions to its ramifications from those involved.
During the meeting, a package of foundations was issued that must be adopted in order to support Lebanon's actual rescue.
According to experts, the financial gap does not reflect losses but obligations, and it was not classified as losses by the Central Bank.
The attendees saw that, despite all the challenges, Lebanon's situation so far reflects a liquidity crisis rather than a solvency crisis, with the main reason being a lack of confidence.
Noting that some believed that the lack of a solution would lead to a solvency crisis.
The experts emphasized and confirmed that it is not possible to discuss financial losses because the losses are economic for the country.
Concerning fixing the exchange rate, participants agreed that it is preferable to liberalize it through a package of reforms in order to achieve financial balance. The central bank would intervene to stabilize the exchange rate in case of financial markets deterioration.
In terms of depositor rights, it is necessary to protect deposits, as stated in the constitution, through the rescheduling of state debts, and thus the rescheduling of accounts and bank assets.
Following the accumulation of negative economic indicators, 100% Liban aim to look for the recovery and relaunching the economy for the sake of Lebanon's future.
100%Liban organized a discussion session entitled: "Navigating challenges and seizing opportunities: Focus group for the lebanese private sector.
We have to rebuild trust between the state and the citizens after the financial and economic crisis and this according to constructive measures in order to support work in all productive sectors, especially education, health, agriculture, tourism, insurance...
The participants emphasized on the importance of the cooperation between all the sectors and to promulgate laws and regulations to avoid the bankruptcy of the country.
100% Liban support the cooperation between all Lebanese sectors.
Together we are stronger!
A focus group discussion on "Principles of Fair Taxation and Redistributive Taxation for Social Justice and Economic Growth in Lebanon" was hosted by Executive Magazine and 100% Liban.
The moderators were Pamela Ibrahim El Kosseifi, the general coordinator at 100% Liban and Thomas Schellen, Editor at Large at Executive Magazine.
The principal points discussed were:
- Principles of Fair Taxation:
Exploring the tax policy principles of fairness, certainty, convenience, and efficiency, and their importance in promoting social justice and economic growth in Lebanon.
Discussing how these principles can guide tax reform in Lebanon and promote a more equitable tax system.
- Informal Economy:
Examining the growth of Lebanon's informal economy and its impact on fiscal dichotomies. Identifying the challenges and opportunities for formalizing the economy and expanding the tax base.
- Sustainable Tax Regime:
Exploring options for creating a sustainable tax regime in Lebanon that is built on the principle of fairness, and how this can be achieved in a way that does not hinder economic growth.
- Transparency and Efficiency:
Discussing the importance of certainty, transparency, and convenience in taxation in Lebanon.
Identifying how the current tax system can be made more transparent, predictable, and easy to understand to promote social justice and economic growth.
- Redistributive Taxation and Progressive Taxation:
Discussing the concept of redistributive taxation and how it can be implemented in Lebanon to promote social justice and economic growth.
Examining how progressive taxation, tax credits, and exemptions can be used to reduce income and wealth inequality and promote long-term economic growth and social stability.
100% Liban support all the ideas and suggestions on how the Lebanese government could modify the tax system to achieve the objectives.
100% Liban organized a session entitled:“To Dollarize or not to Dollarize: Examining the costs , the benefits and challenges of adopting the US Dollar as a currency”.
The session was moderated by Mrs. Pamela Ibrahim El Kosseifi, general coordinator at 100% Liban.
The audience raised several points that help address the monetary crisis in light of the practices used in Lebanon today:
-It's important to implement the required reforms in order to stabilize the monetary instrument without resorting to dollarization.
-To enhance the investment climate by establishing a strong and secure economic system.
-Dollarization won't stop the inflation that is currently taking place because of the policies that were enacted.
-If we embrace dollarization, we will lose our monetary policy.
-If we fully dollarize, we will incure significant economic costs.
100% Liban emphasize on the importance of putting reform measures and is concerned about the purchasing power of the citizens.